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This paper estimates determinants of long-run growth rates of GDP per capita in a cross section of countries. We propose a novel Measurement Error Model Averaging (MEMA) approach that accounts for measurement error in international income data as well as model uncertainty. Estimating the model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965252
The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657134
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011588458
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The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316179
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001750947
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002398300
The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002927996
In this paper we derive the standard error of a price index when both prices and tastes or technology are treated as stochastic. Changing tastes or technology are a reason for the weights in the price index to be treated as stochastic, which can interact with the stochastic prices themselves. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013228273
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