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The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
We study the impact of climate volatility on economic growth exploiting data on 133 countries between 1960 and 2005. We … show that the conditional (ex ante) volatility of annual temperatures increased steadily over time, rendering climate … temperatures, a +1oC increase in temperature volatility causes on average a 0.9 per cent decline in GDP growth and a 1.3 per cent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012608712
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012108766
To examine whether including economic data on other countries could improve the forecast of U.S. GDP growth, we construct a large data set of 77 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Our benchmark model is a dynamic factor model using U.S. data only, which we extend to include...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823435
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013300855
volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0:29 percentage points, but it could also have negative …China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already … repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0:23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969747
volatility could translate into a fall in world economic growth of around 0.29 percentage points, but it could also have negative …China's GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already … repercussions, with world growth reducing by 0.23 percentage points in the short-run; and (ii) a surge in global financial market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012983788
link between oil shocks and the volatility of economic growth. A new measure of oil shocks is developed and shown to be … volatility to oil price changes. Uncertainty about future growth is considerably lower compared to a benchmark AR(1) model when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014114772
This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378362
Evidence from a large and growing empirical literature strongly suggests that there have been changes in inflation and output dynamics in the United Kingdom. This is largely based on a class of econometric models that allow for time-variation in coefficients and volatilities of shocks. While...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106251