This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

How do a large but finite number of agents interact, and, consequently, what macroeconomic statistical regularities or patterns may evolve? The book examines situations (e.g. fluctuations about equilibria, multiple equilibria and asymmetrical cycles of models) which are caused by model states...

This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and...