We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and...

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level not seen in nearly five decades since the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy. Prices, consumption, and production increase after a positive shock to core inflation...

This study presents a framework for extracting long-run GDP growth and inflation expectations from financial market data on a real-time basis. The framework uses information from both stock and bond markets. It builds on a dividend discount model of stock valuation and on a linearized...