The paper proposes a novel theory-based approach to economic growth prediction. In the economy populated with economically independent decision-makers, the information about their individual preferences, available technologies, and resource constraints is embedded in decision-makers' opportunity...

As its workforce ages and major economies shift towards producing higher value-added goods and services, New Zealand will face increasing challenges to remain globally competitive and maintain high living standards. Future growth will need to come increasingly from productivity gains, and...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

Using U.S. real-time data, we show that changes in the unemployment rate unexplained by Okun's Law have significant predictive power for GDP data revisions. A positive (negative) error in Okun's Law in real time implies that GDP will be later revised to show less (more) growth than initially...

Dollarization brought price stability and higher economic growth to Ecuador. Nevertheless, unemployment remained stubbornly high. Two opposing forces explain this result: Sustained growth led to higher labor demand but price stabilization triggered substitution effects by cheaper intermediate...

This paper clarifies the links between employment, productivity and output growth and traces prospects for the Romanian economy. Because it always remains true, the fundamental identity which relates employment to output and labor productivity is the starting point for this paper. We present...

We find that Okun's law provides a simple and accurate means of understanding and predicting changes in the unemployment rate in Australia. Okun's law also implies a rate of output growth consistent with stable unemployment, called the growth of potential output. Our estimates of potential...

The paper analyzes the comparative effects of alternative health financing mechanisms on economic growth within a two-sector model with human capital. The transitional growth effects of a social insurance system are stronger than those of an out-of-pocket payment system. A private health...

This paper considers the impact of leisure preference and leisure externalities on growth and labor supply in a Lucas (1988) [12] type model, as in Gómez (2008) [7], with a separable non-homothetic utility and the assumption that physical and human capital are both necessary inputs in both the...

This paper analyzes the growth and employment effects of dynamic fiscal policies in an overlapping generations model with endogenous growth and imperfect labour markets. With balanced-budget policies, the modelled closed economy grows at a constant rate which is the higher, the lower are the...