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Exponential growth bias in the prediction of COVID-19 spread and economic expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik; Majumdar, Priyama - 2020
errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012288390
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Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns
Guzman, Giselle - 2012
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 4, pp. 760-769
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746905
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How do firms form expectations of aggregate growth? : new evidence from a large-scale business survey
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2020
Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012194628
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How do firms form expectations of aggregate growth? : new evidence from a large-scale business survey
Dovern, Jonas; Müller, Lena Sophia; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2020
Expectations are highly relevant for macroeconomic dynamics. Yet, the empirical evidence about properties of corporate macroeconomic expectations is scarce. Using new survey data on quantitative growth expectations of firms in Germany, we show that expectations are highly dispersed. The degree...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012261779
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Nowcasting economic growth in India : the role of rainfall
Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen - 2019
This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110450
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Extremely harsh winters threaten the livelihood of Mongolia's herders
Lehmann-Uschner, Anna Katharina; Kraehnert, Kati - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 8 (2018) 40, pp. 369-375
Households in developing countries are exposed to increasingly extreme weather events that could endanger their … show that extreme weather events have long-term negative consequences on households and underscore the need for systematic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917319
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When shocks become persistent : household-level asset growth in the aftermath of an extreme weather event
Lehmann-Uschner, Katharina; Kraehnert, Kati - 2018
With the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change, assessing the potential …-off extreme weather event can have persistent effects on household-level asset growth. Our focus is on the effect of a once-in-50 … addition, the intensity of the extreme weather event is a strong predictor for abandoning the herding economy, which leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011900733
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Inflation, Real Economic Growth and Unemployment Expectations : An Empirical Analysis Based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
Ramos-Herrera, María del Carmen - 2017
Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this paper, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961331
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Exponential Growth Bias in the Prediction of Covid-19 Spread and Economic Expectation
Banerjee, Ritwik - 2020
errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823853