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The Global Economic Barometers : composite indicators for the world economy
Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Campelo, Aloisio; … - 2020
This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main stages. The first consists of a variable selection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170717
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Endogenous Growth, Monetary Shocks and Nominal Rigidities
Annicchiarico, Barbara; Pelloni, Alessandra; Rossi, Lorenza - 2010
: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth … increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343890
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Government deficit shocks and Okun's coefficient volatility : new insights on the austerity versus growth debate
Binh Thai Pham; Sala, Hector - 2019
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012054782
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Volatility and growth : governments are key
Jetter, Michael - 2013
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
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Long-run growth uncertainty
Kuang, Pei; Mitra, Kaushik - 2016
Observed macroeconomic forecasts display gradual recognition of the long-run growth of endogenous variables (e.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing business cycle models appear inconsistent with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012010392
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Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility : New Insights on the Austerity Versus Growth Debate
Pham, Binh Thai - 2019
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881
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Banking networks and economic growth: from idiosyncratic shocks to aggregate fluctuations
Kundu, Shohini; Vats, Nishant - 2021
This paper explores the transmission of non-capital shocks through banking networks. We develop a methodology to construct non-capital (idiosyncratic) shocks, using labor productivity shocks to large firms. We document a change in the relationship between foreign idiosyncratic shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694566
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Technological Diversification
Koren, Miklós; Tenreyro, Silvana - 2021
Why is GDP so much more volatile in poor countries than in rich ones? To answer this question, we propose a theory of … and it hence lowers the volatility of output. Technological complexity evolves endogenously in response to profit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318779
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Recurring Cycles? A Multidimensional Analysis of Economic Volatility and Growth
Huric Larsen, Jesper Fredborg - 2018
used to examine the link between volatility and economic growth. The most appropriate functional relationship is found by … to 2015. The model suggest that economic growth takes place around a midline and is subject to three different volatility … relationship between amplitude volatility and economic growth, negative with regard to frequency and positive for phase shift …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912689
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Financial Development and Economic Volatility : A Unified Explanation
Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi - 2009
Empirical studies showed that firm-level volatility has been increasing but the aggregate volatility has been … financial development leads to a larger firm-level volatility but a lower aggregate volatility. In addition, our model is also … consistent with the observed decline in volatility of private held firms which do not have (or have only limited) access to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208300