This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

-term influence of productivity-induced decline in unit labor costs on inflation, and the "rate of change" specification implies … inflation depends also on how fast aggregate demand is growing relative to potential (demand growth gap). The estimated … coefficient on the cyclical markup is negative while that on the demand growth gap is positive, indicating that inflation falls if …

This paper revisits the accuracy of inflation forecasting using activity and expectations variables. We apply Bayesian … values of inflation, a host of real activity data, term structure data, nominal data and surveys. In this model average we … affect any inflation forecast model. The different versions of our framework are used to model U.S. PCE deflator and GDP …