This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...

This paper examines the role of currency and banking in the German financial crisis of 1931 for both Germany and the U.S. We specify a structural dynamic factor model to identify financial and monetary factors separately for each of the two economies. We find that monetary transmission through...

Main description: Warum brach über Deutschland nach der vielversprechenden Stabilisierung der Mark 1923/24 und dem anschließenden Aufschwung eine Krise von ungekanntem Ausmaß herein? Welche Faktoren verbanden sich zu dieser Katastrophe? Wäre sie zu verhindern gewesen? Hätte die...