The U.S. Department of Commerce composite index of leading indicators (CLI) is a widely cited and influential economic series. In this article, Evan F. Koenig and Kenneth M. Emery examine how well movements in the CLI predict business-cycle turning points. Using data that actually would have...

Recently, several economists have argued that movements in the federal funds rate are a good proxy for changes in monetary policy. In this article, Nathan Balke and Kenneth Emery critically examine this view and the evidence supporting it. Using simple vector autoregressions, they find that...

When economists are concerned that the economy may be about to change direction, one of the indicators to which they give special scrutiny is the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management. This article discusses the construction and...