This paper estimates the magnitude of key effects on the real economy from financial sector stress. We focus on the short-run feedback effect from market-based indicators of financial sector risk to the real economy through the credit channel, and estimate this effect on an economy-wide (macro)...

Measuring and managing exchange rate risk exposure is important for reducing a firm's vulnerabilities from major exchange rate movements, which could adversely affect profit margins and the value of assets. This paper reviews the traditional types of exchange rate risk faced by firms, namely...

Commodities are back following a stellar run of price performance, attracting financial investor attention. What are the fundamental reasons to hold commodities? One reason is the exposure offered to underlying risk factors. In this paper, I assess the macro risk exposure offered by commodity...

In reaction to the recent financial crisis, increased attention has recently been given to financial transaction taxes (FTTs) as a means of (1) raising revenue for a variety of possible purposes and/or (2) helping to curb financial market excesses. This paper reviews existing theory and evidence...

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset classes. The contributions are twofold: first, on the technical side, the paper...

How does a commodity market adjust to a temporary scarcity shock which causes a shift in the slope of the futures price curve? We find long-run relationships between spot and futures prices, inventories and interest rates, which means that such shocks lead to an adjustment back towards a stable...

The macroeconomic effects of large food price swings can be broad and far-reaching, including the balance of payments of importers and exporters, budgets, inflation, and poverty. For market participants and policymakers, managing low frequency volatility—i.e., the component of volatility...

This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data...

This study characterizes volatility dynamics in external emerging bond markets and examines how prices and volatility respond to news about macroeconomic fundamentals. As in mature bond markets, macroeconomic surprises in external emerging bond markets are found to a¤ect both conditional...

This study derives structural implications of the Dutch disease in oil-exporting countries due to permanent oil price shocks from a typical model. We then test these implications in manufacturing sector data across a wide group of countries including oil-exporters covering 1977 to 2004. The...