The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a common currency, the EC dollar, which has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at the same rate for more than three decades. This paper examines the influence of the peg on ECCU price stability, and analyzes whether absolute Purchasing...

Although the economic growth literature has come a long way since the Solow-Swan model of the fifties, there is still considerable debate on the "real' or "deep" determinants of growth. This paper revisits the question of what is really important for strong long-term growth by using a Binary...

This paper uses a Binary Classification Tree (BCT) model to analyze banking crises in 50 emerging market and developing countries during 1990-2005. The BCT identifies key indicators and their threshold values at which vulnerability to banking crisis increases. The three conditions identified as...

Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two...

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger...

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition shows that financial conditions explain one-third of the total variability in Canada's...

With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible...

This paper uses three methods to assess movements of real exchange rates in the ECCU over time. First, the purchasing power parity hypothesis is tested and then used to provide a benchmark for equilibrium real exchange rates in the region. Second, a fundamentals-based equilibrium real exchange...

Conventional wisdom has held that a fixed exchange rate regime induces more fiscal discipline, but Tornell and Velasco (1995, 1998) argue the opposite. Using a dynamic model with fragmented fiscal policymaking, this paper evaluates the two arguments in a single framework and shows that (1)...

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and the Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. An innovative...