As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for...

As part of its work to help low-income countries (LICs) manage volatility, the IMF has recently developed an analytical framework to assess vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment (see IMF, 2011a). This report draws on the results of the first...

Contents; Foreword; Acknowledgments; Abbreviations; Overview; Figure O.1 The recent commodity boom was the largest and longest of any boom since 1900; Figure O.2 Real commodity prices in local currency units increased by between 75 and 150 percent but have fallen since; Figure O.3 Slower growth should...