This paper evaluates the usefulness of business sentiment indicators for forecasting developments in the Chinese real economy. We use data on diffusion indices collected by the People's Bank of China for forecasting industrial production, retail sales and exports. Our bivariate vector...

The paper discusses the strategy of economic development of Russia, which has to be developed after the end of the first stage of post-communist transition – when private economy replaced the state-controlled one and stabilization has been obtained. Russia is considered as a heavy...

In this paper we consider relationship between foreign direct investment (as one of the mechanisms of technological development) and long-term economic growth. In the beginning we discuss the role of FDI in the increase of total factor productivity from the viewpoint of endogenous growth theory....

This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating the impact of private capital inflows on economic growth across former Soviet-bloc countries between 1990 and 2015. Roles of the stock market and of demand-side macroeconomic policy are investigated using panel data analysis....

It has become commonplace to raise the analogy between the recent experience of the dynamics of income distribution and growth, and that of the era before the Great Depression. However, no study of the demand regime has been done for the early twentieth century period; this study attempts to fill...

For the mid to late 1990s and early 2000s, the basic neoclassical growth theory predicts a steady Japanese economy, when in fact the Japanese economy was depressed. This study applies the new theory with intangible investment and non-­neutral technology proposed by McGrattan & Prescott (2010)...

The paper examines changes in the Bulgarian economy following the global financial and economic crisis of 2008. The discussion is primarily based on the behavior of economic agents in the crisis – households and companies. The paper also seeks to address the changes in the external and fiscal...

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, en- compassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...

Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies has slowed sharply since 2010. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the causes and implications of this slowdown and presents a menu of policy responses to improve investment growth. It reports four main results. First, the...

We propose a theoretical framework to reconcile episodes of V-shaped and L-shaped recovery, encompassing the behaviour of the U.S. economy before and after the Great Recession. In a DSGE model with endogenous growth, negative demand shocks destroy productive capacity, moving GDP to a lower...