The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 virus is unique in economic history in its mode and rate of occurrence, global coverage, and consequences. The text reveals the mechanisms of the impact of health shock on the economy and the macroeconomic framework of mitigating and exiting the...

This paper provides new empirical evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in developing economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify unanticipated changes in public investment, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output in the short and...

We study the macroeconomic implications of viral, belief-altering narratives. Empirically, we use natural-language-processing methods to measure narratives in the text of all US public firms' end-of-year reports (Forms 10-K). We find that: (i) firms' hiring decisions respond strongly to...

Using the mutual fund industry as a laboratory, we demonstrate theoretically and empirically that economic policy uncertainty an affect investment decisions through an information rather than real options channel. Specifically, we find that fund flow-performance sensitivity decreases in...

Economic, financial and social commentators from all directions and of various persuasions are obsessed with the prospect of recovery. The world remains mired in a deep, prolonged crisis, and the key question seems to be how to get out of it. The purpose of our paper is to ask a very different...

Economic, financial and social commentators from all directions and persuasion are obsessed with the prospect of recovery. The world remains mired in a deep, prolonged crisis, and the key question seems to be how to get out of it. The purpose of our paper is to ask a very different question that...