We provide a general framework for the analysis of the dynamics of institutional change (e.g., democratization, extension of political rights, or repression of different groups), and how these dynamics interact with (anticipated and unanticipated) changes in the distribution of political power...

The Arab Spring has led to very different outcomes across the Arab world. I present a highly stylized model of the Arab Spring to better understand these differences. In this model, dictators from the ethnic or religious majority group concede power if their country is oil-poor, but can stay in...

Introduction: Arab Development via the Channels of War and Oil / A. Kadri. - PART I: POLITICAL ECONOMY. - 1. Egypt: Failed Emergence, Conniving Capitalism, Fall of the Muslim Brothers, A Possible Popular Alternative / Samir Amin. - 2. The Failure of Arab Macro Policy / Fadle Naqib. - 3. The...

The paper investigates determinants of investments in state capacity and institutional change in contemporary Ukraine. After formulating a simple sequential two-stage model of investments in state capacity, the paper estimates autoregressive distributed lag and vector autoregressive models to...