I investigate the dynamics of analyst forecast errors relative to economic policy uncertainty and find a significant positive relation between economic policy uncertainty and analyst forecast errors. A doubling of economic policy uncertainty is associated with a 4.29 percentage points increase...

Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies...

The decline in macroeconomic volatility from the 1980s to the onset of the Great Recession did not, in general, translate into more microeconomic stability. While microeconomic volatility can reflect growth-generating processes, such as creative destruction and re-allocation of resources,...

Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies...

The recent decline in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India raised a debate about whether it is a trend or a business cycle slowdown. We observe a cyclical downturn post-global financial crisis due to external and domestic conditions. With global recovery strengthening and appropriate...

This paper examines the dynamic relationships that exist between output growth and unemployment and assesses the role of macroeconomic policies in shaping these relationships. Using Nigeria's data for the period 1970-2010, we first estimated the linear Okun-type model using the transitory and...

This paper investigates the effects of global economic uncertainty and trade policy-related uncertainty in the US in predicting the bond and equity flows to Turkey during the period from January 2008 to November 2019. We use the time-varying Granger-causality test to assess the ability of...

This paper examines how global uncertainty and domestic shocks (domestic uncertainty) affect macroeconomic performance, such as household consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, and goods and services exports, in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. The Global...