In this paper we develop a well-established financial model to investigate whether bubbles were present in opinion polls and betting markets prior to the UK’s vote on EU membership on 23 June 2016. The importance of our contribution is threefold. Firstly, our continuous-time model allows for...

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for exogenous and endogenous shocks in complex financial systems. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This remains true even in the midst of transitory external shocks. Changes in...