At odds with the common “rational expectations” framework for bubbles, economists like Hyman Minsky, Charles Kindleberger and Robert Shiller have documented that irrational behavior, ambiguous information or certain limits to arbitrage are essential drivers for bubble phenomena and financial...

This paper examines the impact of credit ratings for sovereign bonds on bond price. We test whether credit rating agencies' announcements surprise the market as predicted by the conspiracy theory or confirm what the market has priced already as postulated by the market efficiency hypothesis. We...

This paper discusses how the term-structure of equity implied volatility translates into market expectations for return auto-correlation. The derived measure is a forward-looking metric of return persistence and expected market efficiency. The linkage is built in a non-parametric fashion,...

On 23 April 1997, the Toronto Stock Exchange closed its trading floor, making it at that time the second-largest stock exchange in North America to choose a purely electronic trading environment for its equities. Exploiting this natural experiment, we find that the move to electronic trading...

Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible....

This research analyzes interdependence and low efficiency of the selected capital markets in the period before and after the escalation of the global financial crisis. The aim is to show, based on the obtained results, the position that can be taken by potential investors in frontier capital...

We propose a dynamic Rational Expectations (RE) bubble model of prices with the intention to exploit it for and evaluate it on optimal investment strategies. Our bubble model is defined as a geometric Brownian motion combined with separate crash (and rally) discrete jump distributions associated...

The authors study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, the...

The authors study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, the...