We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...

We build a parsimonious agent-based model under the adaptive market hypothesis (AMH), which can explain the formation of equilibrium prices and market efficiency dynamics. Our model combines heterogeneous interacting agents, switching behavior, and investor feedback on past realized returns,...

We examine the association between margin requirements and the market’s efficiency in incorporating firm-specific and market-level public news. Combining the Fed’s 22 changes in margin requirements with a hand-collected sample of earnings announcements between 1934-1975, we show that higher...

There are numerous studies that examine the impact of social media on the stock market performance but there is a paucity of such evidences from the emerging economies. Today many multinational banks and other financial conglomerates from the developed countries are expanding their operations to...

Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return...

We are the first to demonstrate the decline in the cross-sectional predictability of country and industry returns in recent years. We examine 53 anomalies in country and industry indices from 64 markets for the years 1973–2018. The profitability of the strategies has significantly decreased...

Investors' expectations on firms' cash flow growth can be biased (e.g. Bordalo et al. (2019)), yet we know little about how these biases and their asset pricing implications vary with forecast horizons. In this paper, I show that extreme expectations at all horizons beyond the current period...

This paper examines the behavior of seasonal anomalies in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) of Bangladesh and whether the time varying nature of the anomalies is in line with Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). With this aim the research investigated whether the changes in market conditions, for example:...

Stock market movements are the results of changes in investor sentiment (INSEN) which can even be induced by non-economic events. We consider international cricket events to empirically investigate the notions. Implementing portfolio approach, we conduct the event study along with OLS regression...

We develop a novel experimental paradigm to study the causal impact of trading algorithms on informational efficiency, liquidity, and welfare. In our design, public information about the asset value is revealed during trading, which gives algorithms a reaction speed advantage. We distinguish...