A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we...

A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if it holds, market valuations must follow a random walk; hence, the hypothesis is frequently criticized on the basis of empirical evidence against such a prediction. Yet this reasoning incurs what we...

This paper is about the effectiveness of qualitative easing, a form of unconventional monetary policy that changes the risk composition of the central bank balance sheet with the goal of stabilizing economic activity. We construct a general equilibrium model where agents have rational...

We investigate traders’ behaviour in an experimental asset market where uninformed agents cannot be sure about the presence of insiders. In this framework we compare two trading institutions: the continuous double auction and the call market. The purpose of this comparison is to test which of...

We show that supply networks are inefficiently, and insufficiently, resilient. Upstream firms can expand their production capacity to hedge against supply and demand shocks. But the social benefits of such investments are not internalized due to market power and market incompleteness. Upstream...

Isobar surfaces, a method for describing the overall shape of multidimensional data, are estimated by nonparametric regression and used to evaluate the efficiency of selected markets based on returns of their stock market indices.

This paper analyzes the interday stability of the price process using transaction data. While the vast majority of empirical studies on the microstructure of financial markets rests on the tacit assumption that observed prices are generated by a time-invariant price process, we question this...

This paper tests the policitcal dimensions of the presidential cycle effect in U.S. financial markets. The presidential cycle effect states that average stock market returns are significantly higher in the last two years compared to the first two years of a presidential term. We confirm the...

This paper uses one-minute returns on the TOPIX and S&P500 to examine the efficiency of the Tokyo and New York Stock Exchanges. Our major finding is that Tokyo completes reactions to New York within six minutes, but New York reacts within fourteen minutes. Dividing the sample period into three...

We first report that one-minute returns on TOPIX have exhibited significant autocorrelation at five-minute intervals since 1997/98, which implies there is an arbitrage opportunity. Special quotes that are issued whenever there is a price jump in excess of a predetermined band seem to be the...