This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. We first argue that the conventional tests of efficiency (unbiasedness) of the forward rate or of the survey forecasts do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey...

This paper examines the efficiency of the forward yen/dollar market using micro survey data. Conventional tests of unbiasedness do not correspond directly to the zero-profit condition. Instead, we use the survey data to calculate potential profits of individual forecasters based on a natural...