We develop a quantitative theory of repeated political transitions driven by revolts and reforms. In the model, the …

We develop a theory of political transitions inspired in part by the experiences of Western Europe and Latin America …. Nondemocratic societies are controlled by a rich elite. The initially disenfranchised poor can contest power by threatening social … unrest or revolution and this may force the elite to democratize. Democracy may not consolidate because it is more …

develops and tests a theory to explain elite support for democratization. As such, it makes several theoretical and empirical …, some economic elites have at times supported democratization, leading to deep elite divisions in struggles over regime type … preferences over democratization in Argentina, we might expect the theory to also hold in contexts where economic elites are even …