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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000587541

Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

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Wirkungen von Umfrageberichterstattung auf Wählerverhalten : ein Online-Experiment zu den Landtagswahlen in Baden-Württemberg 2006, Rheinland-Pfalz 2006 und Hessen 2008

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Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003311125

Competing approaches to forecasting elections : economic models, opinion polling and prediction markets

Leigh, Andrew (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor) - 2006

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...