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during an election day. Using a pivotal costly voting model of elections in which voters have privately observed preferences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012221414
This paper considers the implications of an important cognitive bias in information processing, confirmation bias, in a political agency setting. In the baseline two-period case where only the politician's actions are observable before the election, we show that when voters have this bias, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011286492
We develop a tractable theory to study the impact of biased media on election outcomes, voter turnout and welfare. News released by media allows voters to infer the relative appeal of the two candidates, and the closeness of elections. In large elections, the former determines the election...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012030647
theoretical model that explains the observed tendency of growing fraud. Specifically, in a probabilistic voting model of electoral …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190201
Despite controversial debates about the social acceptability of its nationalist program, the rightwing populist AfD has recently entered all state parliaments as well as the federal parliament in Germany. Although professed AfD voters faced a likely risk of social stigmatization, electoral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012063656
Using data from an experiment by Forsythe, Myerson, Rietz, and Weber (1993), designed for a different purpose, we test the "standard theory" that players have preferences only over their own mentary payoffs and that play will be in (evolutionary stable) equilibrium. In the experiment each...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011284229
This paper uses variation in the timing of the Mexican antipoverty program's introduction across municipalities to identify its impact on the share of votes for the local incumbent party. Evidence is found that voters reward the mayor's party for the central benefit to their constituencies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011289331
We use a change in the voting procedures of one of the two chambers of the Swiss parliament to explore how transparency … affects the voting behavior of its members. Until 2013, the Council of States (Ständerat) had voted by a show of hands. While …-consuming screening of online videos. In 2014, halfway through the legislative period, the chamber switched to electronic voting. Since …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411279
two-stage elections, candidates are admitted to the second round of voting based on the outcome of the first round. I find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514279
This paper documents the existence of Political Forecast Cycles. In a theoretical model of political selection, we show that governments release overly optimistic GDP growth forecasts ahead of elections to increase the reelection probability. The bias arises from lack of commitment if voters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012514965