This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

Emerging market financial crises during the late 1990s were marked by sudden withdrawals of funds by foreign creditors, resulting in production declines. The IMF favored positive signals to potential foreign creditors and initially recommended disciplined fiscal policy during the height of...

How does access to credit impact consumption volatility? Theory and evidence from advanced economies suggests that greater household access to finance smooths consumption. Evidence from emerging markets, where consumption is usually more volatile than income, indicates that financial reform...

This paper estimates export and import price equations for 41 countries including 28 emerging market economies. Further, it relates the estimated elasticities to structural factors and tests for statistical breaks in the relation between trade prices and exchange rates. Results indicate that (i)...

In this paper the export demand and supply of German manufacturing industry is estimated for the period 1993:1 through 2005:4. The Johansen (1991, 1994) procedure is applied to estimate the long-run relationship in a VECM. Special attention is pointed on the development of the German export...

This paper uses a Global Vector Auto-Regression (GVAR) model in a panel of 21 emerging market and advanced economies to investigate the factors behind the dynamics of global trade flows, with a particular view on the issue of global trade imbalances and on the conditions of their unwinding. The...

How exporters choose currency for their exports? Using highly disaggregated data on the population of Russian Federation exporting firms between 2005 and 2009 this paper studies the strategic determinants of currency invoicing decisions. Strategic morives embrace two occurrences in currency...

In recent years, emerging East Asian economies have experienced large capital inflows-especially a surge in portfolio inflows-and an appreciation of asset prices such as equities, land, and both nominal and real exchange rates. The paper reviews why a surge in capital inflows can increase asset...

This paper traces the rise of export-led growth as a development paradigm and argues that it is exhausted owing to changed conditions in emerging market (EM) and developed economies. The global economy needs a recalibration that facilitates a new paradigm of domestic demand-led growth....