There are significant effects of changing demographics on economic indicators: growth in GDP especially, but also the current account balance and gross capital formation. The 15-24 age group appears to be one of the key age groups in these effects, with increases in that age group exerting...

I document that emerging markets have cast off their "original sin" their external liabilities are no longer dominated by foreign-currency debt and have instead shifted sharply towards direct investment and portfolio equity. Their external assets are increasingly concentrated in foreign exchange...

Mismatches between the supply and the demand of safe financial assets in fast-growing emerging countries have been singled out by economic theory as drivers of international capital flows and, ultimately, global current account imbalances. This paper assesses empirically the contribution of the...

The rapid increase in global liquidity and the large-scale net capital flows to emerging countries have raised serious concerns about adverse effects on the recipient countries; these include the danger of overheating, exchange rate appreciation pressures, inflationary pressure on consumer and...

The Greek sovereign debt crisis has raised some important issues, not only with regard to the effectiveness of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as an optimal currency area, but also as to whether or not a member state should exit the euro zone in the face of unsustainable debt problems,...

This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to emerging market economies (EMEs) from 2003 to 2014. We find that EME bond markets are most susceptible to positive volatility spillovers from...

We introduce external risks, in the form of shocks to the level and volatility of world interest rates, into a small open economy model subject to the risk of sudden stops—large recessions together with abrupt reversals in capital inflows| and characterize optimal macroprudential policy in...

A growing share of emerging markets (EMs) uses hybrid versions of inflation targeting that differ from the IT regimes of the OECD countries. Real exchange rate and international reserve changes affect the policy interest rates in commodity countries, aiming to stabilize their real exchange rate...

The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier...