We analyze the channels for the cross-border propagation of sovereign credit risk in the international sovereign debt market. We study sovereign credit contagion through the immediate effects of credit events as defined by CDS spread jumps on the credit spreads of other regional sovereigns and...

This paper investigates the relative importance of hot money in bank credit and portfolio flows from the US to 18 emerging markets over the period 1988-2012. We deploy state-space models à la Kalman filter to identify the unobserved hot money as the temporary component of each type of flow. The...

The portfolio-rebalancing theory of Hau and Rey (2006) yields the uncovered equity parity (UEP) prediction that local-currency equity return appreciation is offset by currency depreciation. Vector autoregressive model estimation and tests for eight Asian emerging markets using daily data reveal...

This paper examines the quarter-ahead out-of-sample predictability of Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Turkey credit spreads before and after the Lehman Brothers' default. A model based on the country-specific credit spread curve factors predicts no better than the random walk and slope...