We apply recently developed early warning indicators systems to a cross-section of emerging markets. We find that, with little or no modification, models designed to predict asset price booms/busts in advanced countries may be useful for emerging markets. The concept of monitoring a set of asset...

This paper examines empirically the nonlinear business cycle dynamics due to the presence of financial frictions. Using a threshold vector auto regression, the authors estimate the behavior of interest rate shocks in which a regime change occurs if the two respective threshold variables namely...

While simultaneously accounting for the effects of sovereign and corporate bond spreads, we document that emerging market economy (EME) equity returns have a strong predictive power for future output growth and account for a significant fraction of output fluctuations in these countries. Our...

Using a comprehensive database on bank credit, covering 135 developing countries over the period 1960–2011, we identify, document, and compare the macro-economic dynamics of credit booms across low- and middle-income countries. The results suggest that while the duration and magnitude of...

In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed...

In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the "boom-bust cycle" that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have...

The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an...