We use a non-linear factor-augmented vector-autoregressive model to evaluate international effects of an unexpected decrease in euro area policy rates. Given the current environment of ultra low or negative interest rates, we especially focus on potential differences in the transmission of the...

We propose and implement an index of macroeconomic vulnerability to foreign shocks based on a structural time-varying bayesianVARwith a block-exogeneity hypothesis for a given pair of a large economy and a small open economy. The index is based on the sum of the responses of the small open...

The need for a better understanding of radical uncertainty might have never been greater. Ill-preparedness for natural hazards, a resurgence of serious public health concerns or illusions of control over unruly technology question the extent to which we can 'really' shape the world around us....