Many papers have reported behavioral biases in belief formation that come on top of standard game-theoretic reasoning. We show that the processes involved depend on the way participants reason about their beliefs. When they think about what everybody else or another "unspeci fied" individual is...

Belief elicitation is important in many different felds of economic research. We show that how a researcher elicits such beliefs-in particular, whether the belief is about the participant's opponent, an unrelated other, or the population of others-affects the processes involved in the formation...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al., 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating...

We experimentally test overconfidence in investment decisions by offering participants the possibility to substitute their own for alternative investment choices. Overall, 149 subjects participated in two experiments, one with just one risky asset, the other with two risky assets. Overconfidence...

In an information cascade experiment participants are confronted with artificial predecessors predicting in line with the BHW model (Bikchandani et al. 1992). Using the BDM (Becker et al., 1964) mechanism we study participants' probability perceptions based on maximum prices for participating in...

We report an experiment on a decision task by SAMUELSON and BAZERMAN (1985). Subjects submit a bid for an item with an unknown value. A winner s curse phenomenon arises when subjects bid too high and make losses. Learning direction theory can account for this. However, other influences on...

Science evolves in the long run. Law rules in the present. This potential temporal disconnect leads to a Hayekian “knowledge problem”, a challenge increasingly raised against behavioral law and economics: Empirical findings are deemed too uncertain to provide a solid basis for legal...

We study risky inter-temporal choice in a large random student sample (n=721) and a large rural sample (n=835) in Malawi. All respondents were exposed to the same 20 Multiple Choice Lists with a rapid elicitation method that facilitated the identification of near-future Certainty Equivalents of...