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Prominent numbers, indices and ratios in exchange rate determination and financial crashes : in Economists' models, in the field and in the laboratory
Pope, Robin; Selten, Reinhard; Kube, Sebastian; Hagen, … - 2009
. -- nominalism ; money illusion ; heuristic ; unpredictability ; experiment ; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory ; prominent … numbers ; prominent indices ; prominent ratios ; transparent policy ; nominal equality ; historical benchmarks ; complexity …The prior paper in this sequel, Pope (2009) introduced the concept of a nominalist heuristic, defined as a focus on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003867227
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Managed floats to damp shocks like 1982-5 and 2006-9 : field and laboratory Evidence for Chinese interest in a single world currency
Pope, Robin; Selten, Reinhard; Kube, Sebastian; Hagen, … - 2009
laboratory experiment that incorporates more aspects of real world complexity and more different sorts of official and private … regime ; exchange rate volatility ; experiment ; SKAT the Stages of Knowledge Ahead Theory ; monetary policy ; transparent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003906415
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Exactly What Happens After the Anscombe-Aumann Race? Representing Preferences in Vague Environments
Vierø, Marie-Louise - 2006
with the behavior observed in the Ellsberg experiment. It can capture the same type of behavior as the multiple priors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011940708
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Quantifying Ambiguity Bounds Through Hypothetical Statistical Testing
Balter, Anne - 2018
Models can be wrong and recognising their limitations is important in financial and economic decision making under uncertainty. Robust strategies, which are least sensitive to perturbations of the underlying model, take uncertainty into account. Finding the explicit set of alternative models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012937233
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Biased probability judgment : evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample
Dohmen, Thomas; Falk, Armin; Huffman, David; Marklein, Felix - 2009
Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003845575
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Subjective expected utility in games
Di Tillio, Alfredo - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 3 (2008) 3, pp. 287-323
This paper extends Savage's subjective approach to probability and utility from decision problems under exogenous uncertainty to choice in strategic environments. Interactive uncertainty is modeled both explicitly, using hierarchies of preference relations, the analogue of beliefs hierarchies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011700273
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Granny Versus Game Theorist : Ambiguity in Experimental Games
Eichberger, Jürgen; Kelsey, David; Schipper, Burkhard C. - 2006
We report on an experiment in which subjects choose actions in strategic games with either strategic complements or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014055594
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Regret, Responsibility, and Randomization : A Theory of Stochastic Choice
Heydari, Pedram - 2023
I provide a model of deliberate stochastic choice over acts. In this model, the decision maker finds randomization desirable since it reduces responsibility and regret after the state uncertainty is resolved. I provide an axiomatic characterization of stochastic choices that are compatible with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014262152
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Pollution control : when, and how, to be precautious
Athanassoglou, Stergios; Xepapadeas, Anastasios - 2011
The precautionary principle (PP) applied to environmental policy stipulates that, in the presence of physical uncertainty, society must take robust preventive action to guard against worst-case outcomes. It follows that the higher the degree of uncertainty, the more aggressive this preventive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008858135
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The order of knowledge and robust action : how to deal with economic uncertainty?
Falkinger, Josef - 2015
Economic uncertainty has to do with the consequences of actions under different circumstances. This raises two questions: First, how sensitive are the outcomes of actions to variations in the environment? Second, how clearly can we distinguish between environments? Robustness comes at the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326624