We develop a model of unforeseen contingencies. These are contingencies that are understood by economic agents ' their consequences and probabilities are known' but are such that every description of such events necessarily leaves out relevant features that have a non-negligible impact on the...

Supply chain disturbances can lead to substantial increases in production costs. To mitigate these risks, firms may take steps to reduce their reliance on volatile suppliers. We construct a model of endogenous network formation to investigate how these decisions affect the structure of the...

We analyze a rational-expectations model of price formation in an intermediate-good market under uncertainty. There is a continuum of dyads, each consisting of an upstream party and a downstream party. Both parties can make specific investments at private cost. As in property-rights models,...

What accounts for the rise in income inequality since the 1970s? According to most economists, the answer lies in structural changes in the economy - in particular, technological changes that have raised the demand for highly skilled workers and thereby boosted their pay. Opposing this...

Observational learning is typically examined when agents have precise information about their position in the sequence of play. We present a model in which agents are uncertain about their positions. Agents sample the decisions of past individuals and receive a private signal about the state of...

I present a model of observational learning with payoff interdependence. Agents, ordered in a sequence, receive private signals about an uncertain state of the world and sample previous actions. Unlike in standard models of observational learning, an agent's payoff depends both on the state and...

This paper studies network games with strategic complementarities when agents have only partial knowledge of, but some control over, how their actions are mapped into payoff-relevant outcomes. Uncertainty changes several predictions of standard network models. Equilibrium actions are positively...

We consider an incomplete information network game in which agents’ information is restricted only to the identity of their immediate neighbors. Agents form beliefs about the adjacency pattern of others and play a linear-quadratic effort game to maximize interim payoffs. We establish the...

This paper derives a representation of preferences for a choice theory with vague environments; vague in the sense that the agent does not know the precise lotteries over outcomes conditional on states. Instead, he knows only a possible set of these lotteries for each state. Thus, this paper's...

This paper demonstrates gender differences in risk aversion and ambiguity aversion. It also contributes to a growing literature relating economic preference parameters to psychological measures by asking whether variations in preference parameters among persons, and in particular across genders,...