This article exploits two newspaper archives to track economic policy uncertainty in Spain in 1905-1945, a period of extreme political polarization. We find that the outbreak of the civil war in 1936 was anticipated by a striking upward level shift of uncertainty in both newspapers. We study the...

In regret analysis, an entity (either an individual or a group or a country) feels regret by taking a decision for any particular action when there are other ways to act. Such regret often motivates someone to settle conflict. The present paper discusses such a possibility using a mathematical...

A choice problem is risky (respectively ambiguous) if the decision maker is choosing between probability distributions (respectively sets of probability distributions) over utility relevant consequences. We provide an axiomatic foundation for and a representation of continuous linear preferences...