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This paper analyzes optimal policy in setups where both the leader and the follower have doubts about the probability model of uncertainty. I illustrate the methodology in two environments: a) an industry populated with a large firm and many small firms in a competitive fringe, where both types...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256581
In a Ramsey policy regime, heterogeneity in beliefs about the potential costs of climate change is shown to produce policy ambiguities that alter carbon prices and taxation. Three sources of ambiguity are considered: (i) the private sector is skeptical, with beliefs that are unknown to the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013498952
We study intertemporal choices through an experiment that elicits a subject's plan and then tracks its implementation over time. There are two main results. When facing a costly task to be completed under a deadline, two thirds of subjects prefer anticipating it rather than postponing it. Choice...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011737091
This paper distinguishes uncertainty types that differ continuously with respect to the degree to which uncertainty affects the optimal price/price markup or optimal quantity. A monopoly example is used to show that seemingly strong assumptions on functional forms can represent a wide variety of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532588
In this paper we perform a meta-analysis on empirical estimates of the impact between investment and uncertainty. Since the outcomes of primary studies are largely incomparable with respect to the magnitude of the effect, our analysis focuses on the direction and statistical significance of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349194
Economic uncertainty has to do with the consequences of actions under different circumstances. This raises two questions: First, how sensitive are the outcomes of actions to variations in the environment? Second, how clearly can we distinguish between environments? Robustness comes at the price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326624
Using the framework provided by the asymmetric-information and real-options theories, we examine the impact of uncertainty on firms' decisions and market outcomes. We construct alternative measures of uncertainty based on survey of professional forecasters and our estimation of regression-based...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009764986
We consider a society with informed individuals (adults) and naive individuals (children). Adults are altruistic towards their own children and possess information that allows to better predict the behavior of other adults. Children benefit from adopting behaviors that conform to the social norm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224768
experiment with skill-based payoffs by systematically varying two key elements of the market environment: demand risk and … expected market size. Results show that people's reactions to demand risk depend on the market size: in small markets people … inefficiencies in both cases: demand risk significantly amplifies overentry in small markets and underentry in large markets. Skill …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338933
Uncertainty in economics is generated by “nature” but also by the model we use to “produce the future”. The production of the future comprises besides the allocation of resources on different instruments (technologies, financial products) also the design of the instruments....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011550229