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Inferring preferences from choices under uncertainty

Kuzmics, Christoph - 2012

If a decision maker, in a world of uncertainty à la Anscombe and Aumann (1963), can choose acts according to some objective probability distribution (by throwing dice for instance) from any given set of acts, then there is no set of acts that allows an experimenter to test more than the Axiom...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009509223

A model of reference-dependent belief updating

Maier, Johannes K.; König, Clemens - 2016

We propose a model of instrumental belief choice under loss aversion. When new information arrives, an agent is prompted to abandon her prior. However, potential posteriors may induce her to take actions that generate a lower utility in some states than actions induced by her prior. These losses...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557745

Abraham Wald's Complete Class Theorem and Knightian Uncertainty

Kuzmics, Christoph - 2017

I study the implications of Abraham Wald's (1947) complete class theorem for decision making under Knightian uncertainty (or ambiguity). Suppose we call someone who uses Wald's approach to statistical decision making a Waldian. A Waldian may then have preferences over acts that are not in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972129

An Alternative Subjective Expected Utility Representation Theorem

Kuzmics, Christoph - 2012

A decision maker (DM) is asked to make choices from a set of acts, which entail both risk and uncertainty in the sense of knight (1921). Extending Raiffa's (1961) argument I show that, provided the DM can choose acts objectively randomly (by flipping her own fair coin, for instance), provided...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101803

Inferring Preferences from Choices Under Uncertainty

Kuzmics, Christoph - 2012

If a decision maker, in a world of uncertainty a la Anscombe and Aumann (1963), can choose acts according to some objective probability distribution (by throwing dice for instance) from any given set of acts, then there is no set of acts that allows an experimenter to test more than the Axiom of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014171994

Quasi-rational R&D behavior in an environment with fundamental uncertainty

Dimmig, Anne-Kathrin; Erlei, Mathias - 2012 - First Version: August 2012

uncertainty. We designed a multi-period experiment in which each period consisted of two stages, an R&D phase and a pricing stage …. Participants in the experiment had almost no information about the underlying functions, parameters, and probabilities. Subjects …' behavior in the fundamentally uncertain environment of our experiment may best be characterized as some kind of procedural …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481420

Coordination under loss contracts

Ahrens, Steffen; Bitter, Lea; Bosch-Rosa, Ciril - 2020

In this paper we study the effects that loss contracts - prepayments that can be clawbacked later - have on group coordination when there is strategic uncertainty. We compare the choices made by experimental subjects in a minimum effort game. In control sessions, incentives are formulated as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285502

Flexible Approximation of Subjective Expectations Using Probability Questions : An Application to the Investment Game

Bellemare, Charles - 2008

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function of an economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) random variable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number of probability questions on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012773320

Social Preferences and Strategic Uncertainty : An Experiment on Markets and Contracts

Cabrales, Antonio - 2009

This paper reports a 3-phase experiment on a stylized labor market. In the first two phases, agents face simple games … significant determinants of choices in all phases of the experiment. Since the available contracts display a trade-off between …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012720632

Signaling Probabilities in Ambiguity : On the Impact of Vague News

Vinogradov, Dmitri V. - 2018

-seeking subjects to probabilistic, as well as non-probabilistic news. In a two-color Ellsberg experiment with signals we …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012930993