This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...

This paper assessed the quantitative impact of ambiguity on historically observed financial asset returns and growth rates. The single agent, in a dynamic exchange economy, treats the conditional uncertainty about the consumption and dividends next period as ambiguous. We calibrate the agent's...

This paper examines the effects of income shock on savings decision of a household. In particular, it analyzes how an idiosyncratic income shock affects the asset portfolio held by a household. It shows that income volatility contributes to poverty of rural households by leading them to reduce...

This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on the historically observed equity premium. We consider a Lucas-tree pure exchange economy with a single agent where we introduce two key non-standard assumptions. First, the agent's beliefs about the dividend/consumption process is...

This paper assesses the quantitative impact of ambiguity on the historically observed equity premium. We consider a Lucas-tree pure–exchange economy with a single agent where we introduce two key non- standard assumptions. First, the agent's beliefs about the dividend/consumption process is...

In situations of what we now describe as radical uncertainty, the core model of agent behaviour, of rational autonomous agents with stable preferences, is not useful. Instead, a different principle, in which the decisions of an agent are based directly on the decisions and strategies of other...

This paper combines the recent game theoretic approach of endogenous timing of entry to herding models with a macroeconomic model of investment cycles. The integrated description embodies the qualitative results of the myopic herding model in a medium run investment objective of smoothing the...

In situations of what we now describe as radical uncertainty, the core model of agent behaviour, of rational autonomous agents with stable preferences, is not useful. Instead, a different principle, in which the decisions of an agent are based directly on the decisions and strategies of other...

The paper studies the interaction between cyclical uncertainty and investment in a stochastic real option framework where demand shifts stochastically between three different states, each with different rates of drift and volatility. In our setting the shifts are governed by a three-state Markov...