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This paper shows that Livingston Survey measures of unemployment uncertainty are positively correlated with inflation …, that inflation Granger Causes unemployment uncertainty and that shocks to inflation uncertainty or unemployment uncertainty … have similar effects on real GDP growth. This suggests higher unemployment uncertainty is a cost of higher inflation that …
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The three most recent downturns, in contrast with other post-war recessions, are characterized by slow recoveries in employment despite positive economic growth. I find that recent recoveries coincide with high uncertainty about economy-wide corporate profits at a time when output begins to...
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important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This paper studies the optimal monetary … policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment tradeoff and …
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