We study business uncertainty in high- versus low-volatility environments by surveying over 31,000 managers across 41 … their mean absolute deviations. Analogously, we measure realized volatility using absolute forecast errors. We establish two … new facts. (1) Subjective uncertainty and realized volatility both decline with GDP per capita. (2) Managers underestimate …

output volatility, (ii) cross-sectional output dispersion, (iii) forecast dispersion about aggregate output, and (iv …

account impacts from oil price return and oil price volatility on forecast changes. The panel smooth transition regression …