This article identifies the best models for forecasting the volatility of daily exchange returns of developing countries. An emerging consensus in the recent literature focusing on industrialized countries has noted the superior performance of the Fractionally Integrated Generalized...

This paper investigates the predictability of asset prices among developed and emerging markets. Weekly and monthly stock market indices from developed and emerging market economies are analysed to check the validity of weak-form of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) using various empirical...

ARCH modelling framework of Engle (1982) and its GARCH generalization of Bollerslev (1986) gave a huge impetus to econometric model building in the field of financial time series with time-varying variance. The main idea of the models was to describe the most typical features of capital markets...

This paper analyzes the transmission from global commodity to domestic food prices for a large set of countries. First, a theoretical model is developed to explain price transmission for different trade regimes. Drawing from the competitive storage model under rational expectations, it is shown...

For many low-income countries, the impact of structural reforms on economic growth and poverty alleviation crucially depends on the response of aggregate agricultural supply to changing incentives. Despite its policy relevance, the size of this parameter is still largely unknown. This paper...