We examine the impact of COVID-19 on the federal budget outlook. We find substantial but temporary effects on spending and revenues, with more moderate but permanent effects on the long-term projections. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98%, will rise to 190% in 2050 under...

Over the past few years, some observers have been warning that the Fed needs to update its operating framework to include a level target and the ability to implement direct cash transfers in special situations like the current crisis. They make the case that it is better for the Fed to provide...

Strict containment limits the spread of pandemics but is difficult to achieve when people must continue to work to avoid poverty. A new role is emerging for income support: by enabling people to effectively stay home, it can produce substantial health externalities. We examine this issue using...