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We examine the impact of COVID-19 on the federal budget outlook. We find substantial but temporary effects on spending and revenues, with more moderate but permanent effects on the long-term projections. We project that the debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 98%, will rise to 190% in 2050 under...
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Over the past few years, some observers have been warning that the Fed needs to update its operating framework to include a level target and the ability to implement direct cash transfers in special situations like the current crisis. They make the case that it is better for the Fed to provide...
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Strict containment limits the spread of pandemics but is difficult to achieve when people must continue to work to avoid poverty. A new role is emerging for income support: by enabling people to effectively stay home, it can produce substantial health externalities. We examine this issue using...
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