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Inflation expectations, inflation target credibility and the COVID-19 pandemic : new evidence from Germany
Coleman, Winnie; Nautz, Dieter - 2021
citizens in January 2019 that is designed to measure long-term inflation expectations and the credibility of the inflation … recession implied by the COVID-19 pandemic. Interestingly, even though inflation rates in Germany have been clearly below 2% for … several years, credibility has declined mainly because Germans increasingly expect that inflation will be much higher than 2 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012661961
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Thinking beyond the pandemic : monetary policy challenges in the medium- to long-term
Dąbrowski, Marek - 2021
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012592174
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Forecasting in a Changing World : from the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic
Artemova, Mariia; Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2021
We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250990
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Unusual shocks in our usual models
Ferroni, Filippo; Fisher, Jonas D. M.; Melosi, Leonardo - 2022
We propose an event-study research design to identify the nature and propagation of large unusual shocks in DSGE models and apply it to study the macroeconomic effects of the Covid shock. The initial outbreak is represented as the onset of a new shock process where the shock loads on wedges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013375147
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Market-stabilization QE
Motto, Roberto; Özen, Kadir - 2022
We identify a novel dimension of monetary policy from high-frequency changes in asset prices around ECB policy events, orthogonal to surprises extracted from risk-free interest rates. We find that it is present in policy events that were interpreted by real-time market commentaries as containing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012818740
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The Great Lockdown : Pandemic Response Policies and Bank Lending Conditions
Altavilla, Carlo - 2020
This study analyses the policy measures taken in the euro area in response to the outbreak and the escalating diffusion of new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We focus on monetary, microprudential and macroprudential policies designed specifically to support bank lending conditions. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012823403
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Learning from the Pandemic Monetary Policy Experiment
Hetzel, Robert L. - 2022
sustained increase in inflation. In response, the succeeding Volcker-Greenspan FOMCs rejected an activist monetary policy in … favor of a neutral policy. That policy concentrated on achieving low trend inflation and abandoned any attempt to lower … unemployment by exploiting the inflation-unemployment trade-offs promised by the Phillips curve. The success or failure of the FOMC …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013291209
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FinTech and the COVID-19 Pandemic : Evidence from Electronic Payment Systems
Tut, Daniel - 2020
This paper investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial institutions and consumers' adoption of FinTech in payments. We find that the pandemic: [1] Initially had a negative impact on the adoption of FinTech, but favorable short-term regulatory changes have reversed some of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827241
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Do Changes in Interest Rates Affect Asset Returns? Event Study Results within the COVID-19 Pandemic in Poland
Olbrys, Joanna - 2021
The aim of this research is to assess whether the interest rate cuts during the COVID-19 pandemic period in Poland affected asset returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). Within the pandemic period, and immediately after the first lock-down announcement on March 12, 2020, interest rates were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314287
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The great lockdown : pandemic response policies and bank lending conditions
Altavilla, Carlo; Barbiero, Francesca; Boucinha, Miguel; … - 2020
This study analyses the policy measures taken in the euro area in response to the outbreak and the escalating diffusion of new coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We focus on monetary, microprudential and macroprudential policies designed specifically to support bank lending conditions. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271571