This paper aims to determine the susceptible size used in the mathematical model that predicts the epidemic curve. It also aims to ascertain the age of the epidemic and its reliability system, further suggesting optimal decisions. This paper employs the mathematical induction and deduction...

This paper analyzes the 5-, 14- and 21-day cumulative positivity rate vis-à-vis the COVID-19 deceased rate of each time period for the first four months of COVID-19 from April 2020 to September 2020 in New Delhi, India with the intention of getting insight into the relationship between the two...

To respond to pandemics such as COVID-19, policy makers have relied on interventions that target specific age groups or activities. Such targeting is potentially contentious, so rigorously quantifying its benefits and downsides is critical for designing effective and equitable pandemic control...

The German Robert Koch Institute aims to "protect the population from disease and improve their state of health" (RKI 2017). To this end, it develops concrete, research-based recommendations for policymakers and makes data available to the expert public. Since March 4, 2020, it has been...

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic process whose trend can be adjusted via costly...

The German Robert Koch Institute aims to "protect the population from disease and improve their state of health" (RKI 2017). To this end, it develops concrete, research-based recommendations for policymakers and makes data available to the expert public. Since March 4, 2020, it has been...

How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical...

Cost-effectiveness evaluations of interventions against infectious diseases are often performed using static models. Well-known static models are Markov models and decision trees. These models use a constant force of infection to estimate number of infected individuals. The dynamic effects of...

We study infectious diseases using a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased model with endogenous cross-region human mobility. Individuals weigh the risk of infection against economic opportunities when moving across regions. The model predicts that the mobility rate of susceptible individuals...

The analysis of the pandemic and its effects have been widely studied. For instance, in Economics, most research has studied the impacts of COVID-19 on the global economy, a group of countries, or a single country, while the small-scale effects of the pandemic have not received enough attention....