This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price-...

This paper formulated a short-run model, with an explicit role for monetary policy, for analyzing world oil and gas markets. The model described carefully the parameters of these markets and their vulnerability to business cycles. Estimates showed that short-run demand for oil and gas was price-...

A model for world crude oil and natural gas markets is estimated. It confirms low price and high income elasticities of demand for both crude oil and natural gas, which explains the market power of oil producers and price volatility following shocks. The paper establishes a relationship between...

Following record low interest rates and fast depreciating U.S. dollar, crude oil prices became under rising pressure and seemed boundless. Oil price process parameters changed drastically in 2003M5-2007M10 toward consistently rising prices. Short-term forecasting would imply persistence of...