With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies....

This article contributes to the debate about the impact of the U.S. fracking boom on U.S. oil imports, on Arab oil exports, and on the global price of crude oil. First, I investigate the extent to which this oil boom has caused Arab oil exports to the United States to decline since late 2008....

This paper analyzes the response of international oil producers to demand-induced changes in the real price of oil during 1975-2011. The goal is to disentangle fluctuations in OPEC and non-OPEC production and to derive consistent estimates of the short-run price elasticity of crude oil supply at...

Some observers have conjectured that oil supply shocks in the United States and in other countries are behind the plunge in the price of oil since June 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced that it would...

Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market...

Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations occurred when in late November 2014 OPEC announced...

This note expands Kilian's (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our...