Ludwig Lachmann claimed that expectations are subjective, and argued that this phenomenon, coupled with the ceaseless change characterizing market data, greatly undermines the strength of any process of equilibration. This paper compares his views on this subject with those of Mises. It argues...

In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop...

We study risk sharing games with quantile-based risk measures and heterogeneous beliefs, motivated by the use of internal models in finance and insurance. Explicit forms of Pareto-optimal allocations and competitive equilibria are obtained by solving various optimization problems. For Expected...

Our study demonstrates how agents' expectations can interact dynamically with monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound. We study expectation formation near the zero lower bound using a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment under alternative policy regimes. In our experimental...

In this paper we use a non-tatonnement dynamic macroeconomic model to study the role of inventories, expectations and wages in the business cycle. Following a restrictive monetary shock, by amplifying spillover effects inventories may imply that the economy converges to a deflationary locally...

We analyze the stability of a discrete-time dynamic model with an IS-LM structure. We assume that the Aggregate Supply function is of Lucas type, and the monetary policy rule is of Friedman type. The mechanism of expectations formation is assumed to be of adaptive type (Friedman-Cagan). In its...

This paper studies asset pricing wherein the model combines dynamic learning and habit formation with agents' heterogeneous beliefs and preferences in a dynamic, stochastic, general-equilibrium, pure-exchange, international Lucas orchard. The intertemporal equilibrium model considers two groups...

In this paper we study the effects of financial integration on risk-sharing. Conventional macroeconomic theory suggests that the integration of financial markets improves welfare. In contrast to the literature we assume that households have heterogeneous beliefs. Because of the differences in...

We consider fundamental questions of arbitrage pricing arising when the uncertainty model incorporates volatility uncertainty. With a standard probabilistic model, essential equivalence between the absence of arbitrage and the existence of an equivalent martingale measure is a folk theorem, see...