This paper analyzes behavior in repeatedly played two-stage games, where players choose actions in both stages according to best replies using 'level-n expectations' about the opponent's actions in both stages. Level-n expectations are recursively defined in a way that a player holding level n...

In this paper we study a class of infinite horizon fully coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), that are stimulated by various continuous time future expectations models with random coefficients. Under standard Lipschitz and monotonicity conditions, and by means of...

Discretionary policymakers cannot manage private-sector expectations and cannot coordinate the actions of future policymakers. As a consequence, expectations traps and coordination failures can occur and multiple equilibria can arise. To utilize the explanatory power of models with multiple...

This paper studies global stability of spatial configurations in a dynamic two-region model with quadratic adjustment costs where rational migrants make migration decisions so as to maximize their discounted future utilities. A global analysis is conducted to show that, except for knife-edge...

Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning...

We examine the nonlinear model x(t)=E(t)F(x(t+1)). Markov SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria) exist near an indeterminate steady state, x=F(x), provided |F'(x)| 1. Despite the importance of indeterminacy in macroeconomics, earlier results have not provided conditions for the existence of...

The assumption of perfectly rational representative agents is now commonly questioned. This paper explores the equilibrium properties of boundedly rational heterogeneous agents. We combine an adaptive learning process in a modified cobweb model within a Stackleberg framework. We assume that...

This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations...