Showing 1 - 10 of 23
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003759534
This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832110
This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003805988
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003849575
How is it possible that exchange rates move in the long run towards fundamentals, while professionals form consistently irrational exchange rate expectations? We look at this puzzle from a different perspective by analyzing investor sentiment in the US-dollar market. First, long-horizon...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003575469
This paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009374424
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009751159
This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals ́expectations vary considerably as they generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009727121
Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010429778
This paper provides novel evidence on exchange rate expectations of both chartists and fundamentalists separately. These groups indeed form expectations differently. Chartists change their expectations more often; however, all professionals' expectations vary considerably as they generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009521123