Showing 1 - 10 of 468
I propose a flexible non-parametric method using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) to estimate a generalized model of expectation formation. This approach does not rely on restrictive assumptions of functional forms and parametric methods yet nests the standard approaches of empirical studies on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250843
Expectations about different macroeconomic aspects correlate with each other. I perform a structural test in the framework of the noisy information model and show that individual forms their expectations on multiple macroeconomic variables jointly rather than independently, thus causing these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250554
Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012911043
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013489702
We study the effects of monetary policy on aggregate consumption combining a heterogeneous agent model with measured expectations under different policy counterfactuals. We express the consumption of non-hand-to-mouth households as a function of expectations only and elicit all expectations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013493004
Using a randomized information experiment embedded in a representative survey, we study households' economic expectations at onset of the COVID-19 crisis. Our experimental evidence indicates that households are not fully aware of what is happening in the economy shortly after the pandemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015205429
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
Beliefs are a central determinant of behavior. Recent models assume that beliefs about or the anticipation of future consumption have direct utilityconsequences. This gives rise to informational preferences, i.e., preferences over the timing and structure of information. Using a novel and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523747
Beliefs are a central determinant of behavior. Recent models assume that beliefs about or the anticipation of future consumption have direct utility-consequences. This gives rise to informational preferences, i.e., preferences over the timing and structure of information. Using a novel and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011528156
Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783