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Reconsidering the common ratio effect : the roles of compound independence, reduction, and coalescing

Schmidt, Ulrich; Seidl, Christian - 2014

Common ratio effects should be ruled out if subjects' preferences satisfy compound independence, reduction of compound … lotteries, and coalescing. In other words, at least one of these axioms should be violated in order to generate a common ratio … observation of common ratio effects.We observe that compound independence and reduction of compound lotteries hold, whereas …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367224

Reconsidering the common ratio effect : the roles of compound independence, reduction, and coalescing

Schmidt, Ulrich; Seidl, Christian - In: Theory and decision : an international journal for … 77 (2014) 3, pp. 323-339

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010481151

Calibration of quantum decision theory, aversion to large losses and predictability of probabilistic choices

Vincent, Sabine; Jukalov, Vjačeslav I.; Kovalenko, Tatyana - 2016

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to an empirical data set. The data comprise 91 choices between two lotteries (two "prospects") presented in 91 random pairs made by 142 subjects offered at two separated times. First, we quantitatively account for the fraction of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516615

The Source of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Preferences Over Gambles

Charles-Cadogan, G. - 2012

Probabilistic preference models predict that a subject makes different choices with different probabilities in repeatedly experiments with the same stimuli. This paper explains why. First, we prove that a gamble is a statistical ensemble or sample function of a random field with canonical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113294

Estimation and comparison between rank-dependent expected utility, cumulative prospect theory and quantum decision theory

Ferro, Giuseppe; Kovalenko, Tatyana; Sornette, Didier - 2021

We propose a new parametrization of Quantum Decision Theory (QDT), based on Rank Dependent Utility Theory (RDU). Using experimental data made of choices between pairs of lotteries, we compare QDT with "classical" decision theories, RDU and Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT). At the aggregate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612940

Confidence Theory : Belief Formation in Choice Under Risk

Milovanović, Goran - 2014

In confidence theory, the decision maker relies on statistical regularities from the economic environment to adopt prior beliefs about the probabilities stated on a lottery. Following the confidence principle, by which the weight of the prior in Bayesian inference is proportional to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013061467

Ordering ambiguous acts

Jewitt, Ian; Mukerji, Sujoy - 2017

We investigate what it means for one act to be more ambiguous than another. The question is evidently analogous to asking what makes one prospect riskier than another, but beliefs are neither objective nor representable by a unique probability. Our starting point is an abstract class of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011694759

Robust decision-making under risk and ambiguity

Blesch, Maximilian; Eisenhauer, Philipp - 2021

Economists often estimate a subset of their model parameters outside the model and let the decision-makers inside the model treat these point estimates as-if they are correct. This practice ignores model ambiguity, opens the door for misspecification of the decision problem, and leads to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594943

Stochastic representation decision theory : how probabilities and values are entangled dual characteristics in cognitive processes

Ferro, Giuseppe M.; Sornette, Didier - 2020

Humans are notoriously bad at understanding probabilities, exhibiting a host of biases and distortions that are context dependent. This has serious consequences on how we assess risks and make decisions. Several theories have been developed to replace the normative rational expectation theory at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012219210

Upper and Lower Bounds for Expected Utility

LiCalzi, Marco - 2000

The decision-theoretic literature has developed very few techniques to bound the expected utility of a random variable when only simple statistics like its median or mode or mean are known. One reason for this lack of results is that we are missing a convenient way to link probability theory and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014150815

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